A stock has produced annual returns of 12 percent, 10 percent, -5 percent, and 4 percent over the past four years, respectively. What is the 95 percent probability range of returns?

-25.9 to 37.9 percent

-12.4 to 24.4 percent

-10.0 to 20.5 percent

or

-3.2 to 15.2 percent