A university made a study of all students who completed the first two years of undergraduate work. The average first-year GPA was 3.1 and the SD was 0.4. The correlation between first-year and second-year GPA was 0.4. The scatter diagram is football shaped.

1) Davis was in the study too. His first-year GPA was 2.7 and his second year GPA was one SD below the average of all the students in the study. Do you think his second-year GPA was below or above the average second-year GPA of those who had a first-year GPA of 2.7? Explain why.