Access the "Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy" page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website (https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm) and complete this forecasting assignment according to the directions provided in the "Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning" resource.

Scenario

The generation of new business start-up is vital to the growth of the economy as it builds new jobs and creates new opportunities for the community. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks new business development and jobs created on the website for the United States Department of Labor. You have been tasked with forecasting economic growth and decline patterns for new businesses in the United States.

Forecasting

Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Under the "Business establishment age" heading, the first chart reviews new businesses less than 1 year old during the March 1994 to March 2015 period. Click on the [Chart data] link below the chart:

Once the chart data window opens, you will see the number of establishments that are less than 1 year old for each year during this period:

Using the five most recent years and the "Forecasting Template" spreadsheet provided, complete the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on the analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include a review of errors, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and an analysis of the business trend data for new business startups in the United States

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Home Subjects Data Tools Publications Economic Releases Business Employment Dynamics BROWSE BDM BDM HOME BDM OVERVIEW BDM NEWS RELEASES BDM DATABASES BDM DATA FILES AND CHARTS BDM PUBLICATIONS BDM FAQS CONTACT BDM SEARCH BDM Go D D D 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy Entrepreneurship plays a vital role in the growth of the U.S. economy. As the primary source for information on the nation's labor market, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects data on new businesses and job creation. The following highlights from data series produced by BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program provide insight on the contribution of young and small businesses to the overall number of businesses and jobs in the economy. Business establishment age The BED data series on age of establishment tracks cohorts of new business establishments "born" in the same year and reports on their associated employment. The number of new business establishments (establishments that are less than 1 year old in any given year) tends to rise and fall with the business cycle of the overall economy (see chart 1). (Data by age are not available prior to 1994.) Chart 1. Number of establishments less than 1 year old, March 1994 - March 2015 550,000 500,000 450,000 A to Z Index | FAQs | About BLS | Contact Us Subscribe to E-mail Updates GO Follow Us | What's New | Release Calendar | Blog Search BLS.gov Q 400,000 Students Beta SHARE ON: f Year Ein BDM [Chart data] FONT SIZE: PRINT: 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics