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According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, from August this year: INFLATION Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations continued their steep declines in
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, from August this year:
INFLATION
- Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations continued their steep declines in August: the one-year measure fell to 5.7% from 6.2% in July, while the three-year measure fell to 2.8% from 3.2%.
- Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations, which have been elicited in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year and were first published in July 2022, also declined to 2.0% from 2.3%.
- Median inflation uncertaintyor the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomesdecreased at the short-term horizon and was unchanged at the medium-term horizon.
- Expectations about year-ahead price changes fell by 1.4 percentage points for gas (to 0.1%), 0.8 percentage point for food (to 5.8%), and 0.3 percentage point for rent (to 9.6%). The median expected change in the cost of medical care rose by 0.1 percentage point (to 9.3%) and was unchanged for college education at 8.4%.
LABOR MARKET
- Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged at 3.0% in August for the eighth consecutive month.
- Mean unemployment expectationsor the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from nowdecreased by 0.2 percentage point to 40.0%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 11.1%. Similarly, the mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 0.9 percentage point to 18.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one's current job was lost) increased to 57.2% from 55.9% in July. The increase was most pronounced for those with a high-school education or less.
HOUSEHOLD FINANCE
- The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% in August, a new series high.
- Median household spending growth expectations increased by 1.0 percentage point to 7.8%. The increase was driven by those with a high-school degree or less.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 4.5%.
- Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago improved with fewer households reporting a worse situation compared to a year. Year-ahead expectations about households' financial situations also improved, with fewer households expecting to be worse off a year from now.
Considering these circumstances, what is the best fiscal policy for the USA?Choose one option (yes, we need it or no, we don't). Tell us how you came to your conclusion in a few sentences.
In particular, explain how fiscal policy will affect unemployment and inflation.
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