According to the National Cancer Institute, for women aged 50, there is a 2.38% risk (probability) of being diagnosed with breast cancer. Screening mammography has a sensitivity of about 85% for women aged 50, and a 95% specificity. That is, the false-negative rate is 15% and the false-positive rate is 5%. If a woman aged 50 has a mammogram, and it comes back positive for breast cancer, what is the probability that she has the disease?