Actual sales data is provided below for the first quarter of the year $($weeks $1-13).$ Find the forecast for week $14$ using the last$-$value $($na$$ve$)$ method, Naive with seasonal adjustment, $3-$week weighted rolling average, the linear regression method, and exponential smoothing. Use Solver to calculate the inflator$/$deflator for the Naive with seasonal adjustment method. Use the yellow boxes in the forecast table to enter your forecasts. Calculate the MAD and MSE for each method.

Qtr $1$ inflator$/$deflator Sum $1$

Qtr $2$ inflator$/$deflator t$-30\mathrm{.}2$

Qtr $3$ inflator$/$deflator t$-20\mathrm{.}3$ Y$-$Intercept

Qtr $4$ inflator$/$deflator t$-10\mathrm{.}5$ Slope Smoothing coefficient $0\mathrm{.}5$

Week Actual sales Na$$ve Forecast error $($MAD$)$ MSE Na$$ve w$/$seasonal adj. MAD MSE $3$ wk weighted rolling avg Forecast error $($MAD$)$ MSE Linear Method Forecast error $($MAD$)$ MSE Exponential smooting MAD MSE

$13232\mathrm{.}0$

$237$

$345$

$462$

$555$

$660$

$758$

$868$

$956$

$1058$

$1165$

$1268$

$1372$

$14$ Forecast:

Averages #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$ #DIV$/0!$