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Add to their table by choosing a risk level for each state of nature (assign a probability value to each). Calculate and state the expected

  1. Add to their table by choosing a risk level for each state of nature (assign a probability value to each).
  2. Calculate and state the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative.
  3. Discuss which alternative is best based on the maximum EMV.
  4. Calculate and state the expected value with perfect information (EVwPI).
  5. Calculate and state the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
  6. Discuss the most money your classmate should pay for perfect information.

Good Demand

Acceptable Demand

Poor Demand

3 New Locations

5,175

2,925

-525

1 New Location

1,725

975

-175

No New Locations

0

0

0

=

0.75

Good Demand

Acceptable Demand

Poor Demand

Alternative Value

3 New Locations

5,175

2,925

-525

3,750

1 New Location

1,725

975

-175

1,250

No New Locations

0

0

0

0

Hurwicz Criteria

3,750

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