After the analysis of the macroeconomic data given in the uploaded 41 images at the last, firstly, we need to answer a few basic questions:

Data List: Econ 2301 Survey of Econ Data Updated: 2022-11-23 FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org Help: https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org Economic Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Series ID: A191R01Q156NBEA Title: Real Gross Domestic Product Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Notes: BEA Account Code: A191RO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.govational/. Series ID: AFDEF Title: Net Federal Government Saving Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of DollarsFrequency: Annual Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Notes: BEA Account Code: A923RC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) Series ID: AFEXPND Title: Federal Government Current Expenditures Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Dollars Frequency: Annual Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Notes: BEA Account Code: W013RC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) Series ID: AFRECPT Title: Federal Government: Current Receipts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisRelease: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Dollars Frequency: Annual Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Notes: BEA Account Code: W005RC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) Series ID: CIVPART Title: Labor Force Participation Rate Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Employment Situation Units: Percent Units (Columns matching *_CH'I*): Change from Year Ago, Percent Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Notes: The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS11300000 The Labor Force Participation Rate is defined by the Current Population Survey (CPS) as \"the number of people in the labor force as a percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population [...] the participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work." The Labor Force Participation Rate is collected in the CPS and published by the BLS. It is provided on a monthly basis, so this data is used in part by macroeconomists as an initial economic indicator of current labor market trends. The labor force participation rate helps government agencies, financial markets, and researchers gauge the overall health of the economy. Note that long-run changes in labor force participation may reflect secular economic trends that are unrelated to the overall health of the economy. For instance, demographic changes such as the aging of population can lead to a secular increase of exits from the labor force, shrinking the labor force and decreasing the labor force participation rate. For more information, see: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Overview (https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprog.htm) US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Concepts and Definitions (CPS) (https://www.b|s.gov/cps/definitions.htm#|fpr) Series ID: CPIAUCSL Title: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in US. City Average Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Consumer Price Index Units (Columns matching *_PC1*): Percent Change from Year Ago Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Notes: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCSL) is a price index of a basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers. Percent changes in the price index measure the inflation rate between any two time periods. The most common inflation metric is the percent change from one year ago. It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. This particular index includes roughly 88 percent of the total population, accounting for wage earners, clerical workers, technical workers, self-employed, short-term workers, unemployed, retirees, and those not in the labor force. The CPls are based on prices for food, clothing, shelter, and fuels; transportation fares; service fees (e.g., water and sewer service); and sales taxes. Prices are collected monthly from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments across 87 urban areas. To calculate the index, price changes are averaged with weights representing their importance in the spending of the particular group. The index measures price changes (as a percent change) from a predetermined reference date. In addition to the original unadjusted index distributed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also releases a seasonally adjusted index. The unadjusted series reects all factors that may influence a change in prices. However, it can be very useful to look at the seasonally adjusted CPI, which removes the effects of seasonal changes, such as weather, school year, production cycles, and holidays. The CPI can be used to recognize periods of inflation and deflation. Significant increases in the CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of inflation, and significant decreases in CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of deflation. However, because the CPI includes volatile food and oil prices, it might not be a reliable measure of inflationary and deflationary periods. For a more accurate detection, the core CPI (CPILFESL (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL)) is often used. When using the CPI, please note that it is not applicable to all consumers and should not be used to determine relative living costs. Additionally, the CPI is a statistical measure vulnerable to sampling error since it is based on a sample of prices and not the complete average. For more information on the consumer price indexes, see: Bureau of Economic Analysis. "CPI Detailed Report." (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) 2013. Handbook of Methods (https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/cpihom.pdf) Understanding the CPI: Frequently Asked Questions (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm) Series ID: EMRATIO Title: Employment-Population Ratio Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release Employment Situation Units: Percent Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Notes: The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS 12300000 Series ID: EXPGSC1 Title: Real Exports of Goods and Services Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: A020RX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) Series ID:FEDFUNDS Title: Federal Funds Effective Rate Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) Release: H.15 Selected Interest Rates Units: Percent Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Notes: Averages of daily figures. For additional historical federal funds rate data, please see Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951). The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets. The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the US. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2) References (1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "Federal funds." Fedpoints, August 2007. (2) Board of Governors of the Federal Resen/e System. "Monetary Policy (https://www.federalreservegov/monetarypolicy.htm)". Series ID: FINSLC1 Title: Real Final Sales of Domestic Product Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: A1 QORX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) Series ID: GDPC1 Title: Real Gross Domestic Product Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: A191 RX Real gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.For more information see the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA). For more information, please visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf). Series ID: GDPPOT Title: Real Potential Gross Domestic Product Source: US. Congressional Budget Office Release: Budget and Economic Outlook Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Notes: Real potential GDP is the CBO's estimate of the output the economy would produce with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources. The data is adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. Series ID: GPDI Title: Gross Private Domestic Investment Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: A006RC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) (NIPA) Series ID: IMPGSC1 Title: Real imports of goods and services Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: A021RX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) Series ID: JTS1000JOL Title: Job Openings: Total Private Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Units (Columns matching *_CH1*): Change from Year Ago, Level in Thousands Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Series ID: JTS1000JOR Title: Job Openings: Total Private Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Job Openings and Labor Turnover SurveyUnits (Columns matching *_CH1*): Change from Year Ago, Rate Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Series ID: MZSL Title: M2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) Release: H.6 Money Stock Measures Units: Billions of Dollars Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Notes: Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. For more information on the HS release changes and the regulatory amendment that led to the creation of the other liquid deposits component and its inclusion in the M1 monetary aggregate, see the H.6 announcements (https://www.federa|reservegov/feeds/h6.html) and Technical Q&As (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/h6_technical_qa.htm) posted on December 17, 2020. Series ID: PAYEMS Title: All Employees, Total Nonfarm Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Employment Situation Units: Thousands of Persons Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Notes: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of US. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion. Generally, the US. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women's participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted. The series comes from the 'Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey). The source code is: CES0000000001 Series ID: PCEC96 Title: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Personal Income and Outlays Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: DPCERX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (http://www.bea.govational/pdfipaguid.pdf) (NIPA) Series ID: PNFI Title: Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic ProductUnits: Billions of Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: A008RC Series ID: PRFI Title: Private Residential Fixed Investment Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Dollars Frequency: Quarterly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Notes: BEA Account Code: A01 1 RC Series ID: UMCSENT Title: University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Source: University of Michigan Release: Surveys of Consumers Units: Index 1966;01:100 Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Notes: At the request of the source, the data is delayed by 1 month. To obtain historical data prior to January 1978, please see FRED data series UMCSENT1. This data should be cited as follows: "Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENTI), (Accessed on date)" Copyright, 2016, Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan. Reprinted with permission. Series ID: UNRATE Title: Unemployment Rate Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Employment Situation Units: Percent Frequency: Monthly Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Notes: The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization. The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS 140000001. Is the economy now at full employment, or is it experiencing cyclical unemployment? 2. Should the Fed try to lower the unemployment rate to zero? 3. Has inflation been stable, rising, or falling? 4. Why is inflation bad, i.e., why should we desire low and stable inflation? 5. Is current inflation low enough? Too low or too high? 6. How does GDP growth over the last year compare to GDP growth over the previous 20 years? So is the economy ill, healthy, or so-so?1. the GDP growth rate 2. the inflation rate 3. the unemployment rate 4. Also, for the next 12 months, what potential shocks would cause us to change our forecasts, and how would the shock affect our forecast (e.g., suppose oil prices jump: what happens to our forecasts)?1. Should the Fed increase. deorease, or hold constant the fed funds rate? Why? 2. Should fiscal policymakers out taxes or raise taxes? Why? 3. Should fiscal policymakers reduce defense and nondefense spending or increase defense and nondefense spending? Why