Question
All contestants on a game show are given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is $1,000,000; behind the others, goats. The contestant picks
All contestants on a game show are given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is $1,000,000; behind the others, goats. The contestant picks a door, andthe host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, revealing a goat. He then gives the contestant the option to switch to the remaining closed door or stick with his/her original choice. And guess what? You've just been selected to play! You choose a door and the host reveals a goat behind one of the other doors. Now he gives you the decision to stick or switch. You obviously want to give yourself the best chance of winning the cash (unless you're really, really into goats), so you nerd it up and contemplate which strategy would be best over the long run.
Anyway, which of the following is true for contestants over the long run?
Which answer is best?
You have a better chance of winning the money if you switch to the other door. | |
You have a better chance of winning the money if you stick with your original choice. | |
The probability of winning the money is the same (50%) whether you stick with your original choice or switch to the other door. | |
You arereally, really into goats, to the point where you'd choose one over a million bucks and intentionally get an extra credit question wrong by choosing this option. |
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