all-equity firm with a market value of $325 million and 100 million of shares outstanding. The company pays taxes at a rate of 35%. The management announces that it will borrow $200 million in debt, and use the proceedings to repurchase shares. The share price upon announcement goes to $3.85. Analysts use a model to calibrate the costs of financial distress, should the company default on the debt. Their estimate is $150 million. Which of the following represents what the market believes to be the firm's probability of default?