Although the Commerce 30-year period. However, its creator, Department, the Wharton David L. Upshaw, did not take it School, the Federal Reserve too seriously and views it as a spoof Board, and other organiza- of other forecasters' methods. tions publish economic forecasts Greeting card sales are another iStockphoto.com/Sean and data on key economic indica- tried and true indicator, according tors, they are not without arm- to a vice president of American Locke chair competition. For example, Greetings. Before a recession sets the chief executive of Standex In- in, sales of higher-priced greeting ternational Corporation, Daniel E. cards rise. It seems that people Hogan, reported that his company substitute the cards for gifts, and can predict economic downturns since there is no gift, the card must Finally, Anthony Chan, chief and recoveries from sales reports be fancier. economist for Bank One Invest- of its National Metal Industries A Super Bowl win by an NFC ment Advisors, studied marriage subsidiary in Springfield, Massa- team predicts that in the following trends over a 34-year period. He chusetts. National makes metal December the stock market will discovered that when the number parts for about 300 U.S. manufache higher than the year before. of marriages increases, the econ- turers of mops and brooms. A drop A win by an old AFL team predicts omy rises significantly, and a slow- in National's sales always precedes a dip in the stock market. down in marriages is followed by a proportional fall in consumer Several other less well-known a decline in the economy. Chan spending. The company's sales al- indicators have also been pro- explains that there is usually ways pick up slightly before con- posed. For example, one econo- about a one-year lag between a sumer spending does.' mist suggested that the surliness change in the marriage rate and The Boston Snow Index (BSI) of waiters is a countercyclical the economy. is the brainchild of a vice president indicator. If they are nice, expect of a New York securities firm. It that bad times are coming, but if ANALYZE THE ISSUE predicts a rising economy for the they are rude, expect an upturn. next year if there is snow on the Waiters, on the other hand, coun- Which of the above indica- ground in Boston on Christmas ter that a fall in the average tip tors are examples of causa- Day. The BSI predicted correctly usually precedes a downturn in tion? Explain. about 73 percent of the time over a the economy