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Amazon may invest in a state-of-the-art inventory control system that promises possible cost savings. The system will cost $230M. With 40% probability, the system will
Amazon may invest in a state-of-the-art inventory control system that promises possible cost savings. The system will cost $230M. With 40% probability, the system will generate $25M in after-tax cost savings forever. Alternatively, with 60% probability, the system will generate $5M in perpetual annual after-tax cost savings. The cost of capital appropriate for this project is 10%. Calculate the DCF-NPV for this investment. Amazon could also defer or postpone the investment for one year. During this year, Amazon could observe and determine whether the true savings are $25M or $5M. What is the value of this option? What is the cost of this option? What is the NPV of the investment including the option
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