Answered step by step
Verified Expert Solution
Question
1 Approved Answer
AmeriPlas, Inc., produces 20-ounce plastic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of prominent beers and soft drinks. The sales data are: Date Sales
- AmeriPlas, Inc., produces 20-ounce plastic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of prominent beers and soft drinks. The sales data are:
Date | Sales |
Jan-13 | 40,358 |
Feb-13 | 45,002 |
Mar-13 | 63,165 |
Apr-13 | 57,479 |
May-13 | 52,308 |
Jun-13 | 60,062 |
Jul-13 | 51,694 |
Aug-13 | 54,469 |
Sep-13 | 48,284 |
Oct-13 | 45,239 |
Nov-13 | 40,665 |
Dec-13 | 47,968 |
Jan-14 | 37,255 |
Feb-14 | 38,521 |
Mar-14 | 55,110 |
Apr-14 | 51,389 |
May-14 | 58,068 |
Jun-14 | 64,028 |
Jul-14 | 52,873 |
Aug-14 | 62,584 |
Sep-14 | 53,373 |
Oct-14 | 52,060 |
Nov-14 | 51,727 |
Dec-14 | 51,455 |
Jan-15 | 47,906 |
Feb-15 | 53,570 |
Mar-15 | 69,189 |
Apr-15 | 64,346 |
May-15 | 77,267 |
Jun-15 | 75,787 |
Jul-15 | 74,052 |
Aug-15 | 79,756 |
Sep-15 | 73,292 |
Oct-15 | 77,207 |
Nov-15 | 68,423 |
Dec-15 | 67,274 |
Jan-16 | 65,711 |
Feb-16 | 68,005 |
Mar-16 | 78,029 |
Apr-16 | 92,764 |
May-16 | 97,175 |
Jun-16 | 86,255 |
Jul-16 | 90,496 |
Aug-16 | 87,602 |
Sep-16 | 83,577 |
Oct-16 | 92,610 |
Nov-16 | 73,949 |
Dec-16 | 77,711 |
Page 277
(c5p12)
- Prepare a time-series plot of the sales data. Does there appear to be a regular pattern of movement in the data that may be seasonal? Ronnie Mills, the product manager for this product line, believes that her brief review of sales data for the four-year period indicates that sales are slowest in November, December, January, and February than in other months. Do you agree?
It seems that the sales are the lowest in November, December, January, and February than in other months. Therefore, I agree with this statement.
- Since production is closely related to orders for current shipment, Ronnie would like to have a monthly sales forecast that incorporates monthly fluctuations. She has asked you to develop a trend model that includes a time index and dummy variables for all but the above mentioned four months. Do these results support Ronnies observations? Explain.
The trend model given with this equation is 45518.48+927.7418*t-15281.1*x2-12738.8*x2-13645*x11-12158.7*x12. They support Ronnies observations because
- Ronnie believes that there has been some increase in the rate of sales growth. To test this and to include such a possibility in the forecasting effort, she has asked that you add the square of the time index (T) to your model (call this new term T2). Is there any evidence of increase of sales growth? Compare the results of this model with those found in part (b).
- Use the model in part (c) to forecast sales for 2017. Calculate the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the first six months of 2017. Actual sales for those six months were:
Jan-2017 | 87327 |
Feb-2017 | 84772 |
Mar-2017 | 112499 |
Apr-2017 | 102633 |
May-2017 | 112996 |
Jun-2017 | 119807 |
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
Step: 1
Get Instant Access to Expert-Tailored Solutions
See step-by-step solutions with expert insights and AI powered tools for academic success
Step: 2
Step: 3
Ace Your Homework with AI
Get the answers you need in no time with our AI-driven, step-by-step assistance
Get Started