1. An airport plans to establish a new terminal. It has three project candidates with the same lifetime. For each project, there are four possible cash flow scenarios. The possibility of each scenario is shown in Table 1. The detailed cash inflows and cash outflows of the three projects under each scenario are shown in Table 2, Table 3 and Table 4. All the cash flows are in billion USD. Assume the discount rate is 10% per year. Please complete the following tasks, and show your calculation steps. The numbers shall keep two decimals in this assignment. (10%)

Tasks:

1. Evaluate the three projects by using the Mean-variance approach, and give recommendations for the airport.

Table 1. The possibility of each scenario. Project 1 Possibility Project 2 Possibility Project 3 Possibility Scenario 1 0.3 Scenario 1 0.1 Scenario 1 0 Scenario 2 0.1 Scenario 2 0.6 Scenario 2 0.6 Scenario 3 0.2 Scenario 3 0.3 Scenario 3 0.3 Scenario 4 0.4 Scenario 4 0 Scenario 4 0.1 Table 2. The detailed cash inflows and cash outflows of Project 1. Project 1 - Scenario 1 Project 1 - Scenario 2 Project 1 - Scenario 3 Project 1 - Scenario 4 Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Year 0 0 -100 0 0 -120 0 0 -200 0 0 -180 21 Page Assignment for project investment management 1 30 -5 1 40 -5 1 50 0 1 40 -3 -2 2 30 -4 2 40 -5 2 50 0 2 45 3 30 -2 3 50 -5 3 50 0 3 55 -1 4 30 -1 4 35 -5 4 50 0 4 60 0 5 30 -1 5 30 -5 5 50 0 5 50 0 Table 3. The detailed cash inflows and cash outflows of Project 2. Project 2 - Scenario 1 Project 2 - Scenario 2 Project 2 - Scenario 3 Project 2 - Scenario 4 Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Year Year 0 0 -90 0 0 -100 0 0 -110 0 0 -120 1 20 -5 1 30 -10 1 20 0 1 40 -10 2. 25 -4 2 40 -10 30 0 2 45 -10 3 20 -2 3 50 -10 3 40 0 3 50 -10 4 15 -1 4 35 -10 4 50 0 4 50 -10 5 35 0 5 30 -10 5 25 0 5 45 -10 Table 4. The detailed cash inflows and cash outflows of Project 3. Project 3 - Scenario 1 Project 3 - Scenario 2 Project 3 - Scenario 3 Project 3 - Scenario 4 Cash Cash inflow outflow Cash inflow Cash outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Year Year Year Year 0 0 -70 0 0 -60 o 0 -65 0 0 -90 1 10 -5 1 0 -5 1 5 -6 1 20 -3 2 12 -4 2 5 0 2 10 0 2 25 -2 3 15 -2 3 25 0 3 15 0 3 30 -1 4 25 -1 4 35 0 4 25 0 4 25 0 5 35 -1 5 50 0 5 45 0 5 35 0 Table 1. The possibility of each scenario. Project 1 Possibility Project 2 Possibility Project 3 Possibility Scenario 1 0.3 Scenario 1 0.1 Scenario 1 0 Scenario 2 0.1 Scenario 2 0.6 Scenario 2 0.6 Scenario 3 0.2 Scenario 3 0.3 Scenario 3 0.3 Scenario 4 0.4 Scenario 4 0 Scenario 4 0.1 Table 2. The detailed cash inflows and cash outflows of Project 1. Project 1 - Scenario 1 Project 1 - Scenario 2 Project 1 - Scenario 3 Project 1 - Scenario 4 Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Year 0 0 -100 0 0 -120 0 0 -200 0 0 -180 21 Page Assignment for project investment management 1 30 -5 1 40 -5 1 50 0 1 40 -3 -2 2 30 -4 2 40 -5 2 50 0 2 45 3 30 -2 3 50 -5 3 50 0 3 55 -1 4 30 -1 4 35 -5 4 50 0 4 60 0 5 30 -1 5 30 -5 5 50 0 5 50 0 Table 3. The detailed cash inflows and cash outflows of Project 2. Project 2 - Scenario 1 Project 2 - Scenario 2 Project 2 - Scenario 3 Project 2 - Scenario 4 Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash Year inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Year Year 0 0 -90 0 0 -100 0 0 -110 0 0 -120 1 20 -5 1 30 -10 1 20 0 1 40 -10 2. 25 -4 2 40 -10 30 0 2 45 -10 3 20 -2 3 50 -10 3 40 0 3 50 -10 4 15 -1 4 35 -10 4 50 0 4 50 -10 5 35 0 5 30 -10 5 25 0 5 45 -10 Table 4. The detailed cash inflows and cash outflows of Project 3. Project 3 - Scenario 1 Project 3 - Scenario 2 Project 3 - Scenario 3 Project 3 - Scenario 4 Cash Cash inflow outflow Cash inflow Cash outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Cash Cash inflow outflow Year Year Year Year 0 0 -70 0 0 -60 o 0 -65 0 0 -90 1 10 -5 1 0 -5 1 5 -6 1 20 -3 2 12 -4 2 5 0 2 10 0 2 25 -2 3 15 -2 3 25 0 3 15 0 3 30 -1 4 25 -1 4 35 0 4 25 0 4 25 0 5 35 -1 5 50 0 5 45 0 5 35 0