An analyst predicts two economic states next year. A boom economy has a 70% probability of occurring, while a recession has a 30% probability of occurrence. A portfolio contains two stocks L and U. Stock L has a 40% weighting in the portfolio, while stock U has a 60% weighting. Stock L is estimated to provide a 10% return in a boom economy and a 4% return in a recession. Stock U is estimated to provide a 5% return in a boom economy and a -8% return in a recession. Calculate the portfolio return.