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An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 m 3 4 5 Requests: 23
An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 m 3 4 5 Requests: 23 25 23 24 25 Click here for the Excel Data File Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive. Number of requests b. A four-period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Number of requests c. Exponential smoothing with a = 0.25. Use 23 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate forecast values and final answers to 2 decimal places.) F3 F4 F5 Number of Requests F6 Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows: Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2 1 840 840 815 2 835 805 795 10 34567890 820 800 825 845 805 805 765 810 800 840 765 791 775 785 795 860 830 770 820 835 850 845 855 845 a. Compute the MSE and MAD for each forecast. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Answer is complete and correct. MSE MAD Forecast 1 Forecast 1,319.44 1,875.11 27.50 33.40 2 b. Compute MAPE for each forecast. (Round your intermediate calculations to 5 decimal places and final answers to 4 decimal places.) Answer is complete but not entirely correct. MAPE F1 MAPE F2 33.3514% 40.1900 % c. Prepare a naive forecast for periods 2 through 11 using the given sales data. Compute each of the following: (1) MSE, (2) MAD, (3) tracking signal at month 10, and (4) 2s control limits. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Answer is not complete. MSE MAD 1,337.50 x 30.00 Tracking signal 0 -73.14- Control limits 73.14 a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair Savings Bank and use it to predict expected new checking accounts for periods 16 through 19. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Period New Accounts Period 1 2345 New Accounts Period New Accounts 200 213 60 232 11 281 7 243 12 275 211 8 250 13 283 227 9 257 14 288 235 10 267 15 308 Y Y16 II Y17 = Y18 = Y19 + b.Use trend-adjusted smoothing with a = 2 and = 1 to smooth the new account data in part a. What is the forecast for period 16? Compute the initial trend estimate (T+) for Period 5 as follows: (Period 4 data - Period 1 data) / 3. Then compute the initial trend- adjusted forecast (TAF+) for Period 5 as follows: Period 4 data + Initial trend estimate for Period 5. Then compute all remaining values (including the St value for Period 5) using the textbook formulas or Excel template. (Round the "Trend"values (Tt) to 3 decimal places and all other intermediate forecast values (TAFt and St) to 2 decimal places. Round your final answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast for period 16
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