An entrepreneur wishes to enter the amusement park business. She has to choose between two strategies:

1. Open a water park, a theme park and a roller coaster park. Each park has a 75% chance of being profitable after three years. However, the parks require separate marketing efforts, so in order for the whole venture to be successful, all three restaurants must be profitable in the first two years.
2. Open a chain of three roller coaster parks in nearby counties. Each park has a 25% chance of making profit in the first two years. This project does not require heavy marketing spending, so in order for it to be successful, at least one park must be profitable after three years.

Which option is more likely to be successful? Why do people sometimes choose the less promising option?