1. An investment manager analyses a security and determines that it has three possible return outcomes over the next 12 months; -3.5%, 8.5% and 15.6%, for which she has assigned the following probabilities of occurring; 15%, 65% and 20% respectively. If the security is presently priced at $104.16, to what price does the manager expect to stock to be in 12 months time?

   a		$112.62
   b		8.1%
   c		$71.52
   d		$111.31