Question
An investor is interested in developing a forecasting model for Company A' stock price and has collected the quarterly revenue data from 2010 to 2020.
An investor is interested in developing a forecasting model for Company A' stock price and has collected the quarterly revenue data from 2010 to 2020. Identify the moving average forecasting model among k = 2,3,4 and 5.
Identify the best exponential smoothing model among = 0.2, 0.25, 0.3, 0.35 and 0.4.
Develop a linear regression model without seasonal pattern.
Develop a linear regression model with seasonal pattern and without trend.
Develop a linear regression model with both seasonal pattern and trend.
Compare the final models developed in all 5 questions using the performance metrics.
Which of these models can be used to forecast the revenue for the next 4 quarters? Calculate and visualize the forecasts from the corresponding models.
Revenue |
15683 |
13499 |
15700 |
20343 |
26741 |
24667 |
28571 |
28270 |
46333 |
39186 |
35023 |
35966 |
54512 |
43603 |
35323 |
37472 |
57594 |
45646 |
37432 |
42123 |
74599 |
58010 |
49605 |
51501 |
75872 |
50557 |
42358 |
46852 |
78351 |
52896 |
45408 |
52579 |
88293 |
61137 |
53265 |
62900 |
84310 |
58015 |
53809 |
64040 |
91819 |
58313 |
59685 |
64698 |
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