Question
An oil company executive and an executive of a mining company met during a conference. They say 30% of the world's undiscovered oil is in
An oil company executive and an executive of a mining company met during a conference. "They say 30% of the world's undiscovered oil is in the Arctic," started the oil man. "We've drilled 60 exploratory wells and all but 20 of them were dry. Only 2 of those 20 are economical with the oil prices being projected for the next 10 years. The good news is that 90% of these projects get environmental approvals." The mining executive replied, "It's just as bad in mining. We know where there's uranium, but with the current unpopularity of nuclear power, we estimate the chance of it being profitable is less than 8%." Complete parts (a) through (e) below.
a) What method of probability assessment is being used by the mining executive? Choose the correct answer below.
A.The probability is an empirical probability since it is based on observing past outcomes.
B.The probability is a subjective probability since it is based on an estimate of outcomes.
C.The probability is a subjective probability since it is based on observing past outcomes.
D.The probability is a theoretical probability since it comes from a mathematical model of the number of possible outcomes.
E.The probability is an empirical probability since it comes from a mathematical model of the number of possible outcomes.
F.The probability is a theoretical probability since it is based on an estimate of outcomes.
b) What method of probability assessment is being used by the oil executive? Choose the correct answer below.
A.The probability is a theoretical probability since it comes from a mathematical model of the number of possible outcomes.
B.The probability is a subjective probability since it is based on observing past outcomes.
C.The probability is a theoretical probability since it is based on an estimate of outcomes.
D.The probability is an empirical probability since it is based on observing past outcomes.
E.The probability is an empirical probability since it comes from a mathematical model of the number of possible outcomes.
F.The probability is a subjective probability since it is based on an estimate of outcomes.
d) Which probability(ies) in the tree is/are conditional? Select all that apply.
A.The probability of a well not being economical
B.The probability of a well being economical
C.The probability of a well being dry
D.The probability of a well being not dry
E.The probability of a well not getting environmental approval
F.The probability of a well getting environmental approval
e) If the oil company were to drill an exploratory well in the Arctic, what is the probability that the company would actually extract oil from it? (Round to four decimal places as needed.)
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
Step: 1
Get Instant Access to Expert-Tailored Solutions
See step-by-step solutions with expert insights and AI powered tools for academic success
Step: 2
Step: 3
Ace Your Homework with AI
Get the answers you need in no time with our AI-driven, step-by-step assistance
Get Started