An Ontario farmer in the Niagara region of the province must decide whether to take protective action to limit damage to the grapefruit crop in the event that overnight temperature falls to a level well below freezing.

If the temperature drops too low the farmer runs the risk of losing the entire crop, valued at $75,000. Based on the daily CTV- Ontario Weather Report, the probability of such a temperature drop is 60%. He/she can insulate the grapefruit crop by spraying water on all the trees, which will cost $20,000. This action might succeed in protecting the grapefruit crop, with the following possible outcomes:

What should he/she do? Explain your answer in terms of the optimal cost outcome.

Optimal cost outcome answer is $ ____________.

:

Probability	Damage
.30	$0
.15	$5000
.10	$10000
.15	$15000
.30	$20000