An outbreak of a transmissible disease has occurred in the region in which you live exposing almost the entire population. In this region 90% of people have had a vaccine made by the companyAncientaand 10% have had a vaccine made by the companyPfizzer.

Among people vaccinated withAncienta, 90% of people don't catch the disease, 5% of people have mild illness and 5% of people have a severe illness. Among people vaccinated withPfizzer70% don't catch the disease, 20% suffer mild illness and 10% suffer serious illness.

1. [3 marks] What proportion of people exposed to the disease will (i) suffer serious illness? (ii) suffer mild illness? (iii) avoid catching the disease?

1. [2 marks] Assuming that mild illness costs $1000 to treat and serious illness costs $5,000 to treat. What is the expected cost per resident?

1. [2 marks] Given that someone suffers from serious illness what is the probability that they are vaccinated withAncienta?

1. [3 marks] A vaccine sales-rep claims that the fact that P(vaccinated withAncienta| seriously ill) is greater than P(vaccinated withPfizzer| seriously ill) means that thePfizzervaccine is more effective. Explain whether this is a reasonable conclusion