Question
Analyse the current state of and prospects for the business cycle in South Africa. More specifically, select five indicators you deem relevant and use them
Analyse the current state of and prospects for the business cycle in South Africa. More specifically, select five indicators you deem relevant and use them to explicitly predict the direction and approximate magnitude of specifically GDP, through its components: G, C, I, X and M for the next two years. When you choose the five indicators, do not select those that are too broad. For example, instead of choosing 'credit', choose personal credit extension - or even, mortgage credit, or vehicle finance. Please 'break the indicator down into its core' and use that rather Show an an understanding of the underlying issues and a link between the economic agents on the ground and the ultimate macroeconomic environment. Be specific and use each respective indicator to predict GDP through one of its components, C, I, G X or M. The chosen predictor must have a marked impact on a respective component of GDP to ultimately have an effect on GDP. It is not about what happens to the indicator per se, but rather about what happens to GDP (through one of its respective components) based on what happens to your indicator. Therefore, the assignment is not about predicting what happens to your indicator - you must use what you predict will happen to the indicator to predict what happens to GDP.
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