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Analysis of Changes in Profitability and Growth: Cisco Systems, Inc. 1 By any stretch of the imagination, Cisco System s (CSCO) has been a strong

Analysis of Changes in

Profitability and Growth: Cisco Systems, Inc.

1

By any stretch of the imagination, Cisco System

s (CSCO) has been a strong growth company. A

darling of the Internet boom of

the late 1990s, it was one of the few technology companies tied to

the Internet and telecommunications

that prospered during that era.

Its products - networking and

communications equipment such as router and sw

itching devices - built the infrastructure of the

Internet. While most Internet

and telecommunications firms str

uggled and failed, their supplier,

Cisco, capitalized on the new technology. At one poi

nt in 2000, its market capitalization was over

half a trillion dollars, the largest market capitaliza

tion of any firm ever.

Its stock price increased

from $10 in 1995 to $80 in 2000, supported by sales growth from $2.0 billion in 1995 to $18.9

billion 2000.

In early 2000, Ciscos P/E stood at 130 so investors

saw plenty of room for more earnings growth.

However, with the subsequent collapse

of the technology bubble

and the demise of

telecommunications firm such as WorldCom, Qwes

t, and AT&T, the anticipated growth failed to

materialize. Indeed, in 2001 Cisco wrote down

inventory by an astonish

ing $2.3 billion (under the

lower-of-cost-or-market rule), to reflect the dr

op in demand for its products and the emergence of

second-hand telecom equipment market.

Exhibit 1 presents Ciscos income statements fo

r the fiscal years 2000-2002 and balance sheets for

1999-2002. The exhibit also includes

the cash flow from operations a

nd cash investing sections of

the cash flow statements. The 2000 sales of $18

.9 billion were up from $12.2 billion in 1999 and

$8.5 billion in 1998, a tremendous gr

owth record. But subsequent

sales growth was not as

impressive, as you can see, and led to declini

ng earnings. Indeed, Cisc

o posted a loss for 2001.

Lower earnings on increasing shareholders equity clea

rly implies that residual income is declining.

By the end of 2002, Ciscos shares traded

at $15, well down from the 2000 high of $80.

Other information, most of the from the 10-K f

ootnotes, that was useful in reformulating the

financial statements is presented below. Note th

at the cash flow statements from Exhibit 1 are

particularly useful for identifying core income becau

se some of the items in the reconciliation of net

income to cash flow from operati

ng activities involve unusual items.

Questions:

1.

What adjustments are necessary to reformulate

the income statements and balance sheets to

properly separate financ

ing from operations?

2.

What adjustments are necessary to separate

core operations from othe

r sources of income?

What items are identified as

core in the Balance Sheet?

3.

Calculate Core RNOA and decompose the ratio for Cisco for 2002 and 2001.

1.

Long-term investments are comprised of the following:

2002

2001

2000

1999

Equity investments 567 1,529 6,225 877

Debt investments 8,233 8,817 7,463 6,155

8,800 10,346 13,688

7,032

All short-term investments ar

e debt investments. Restri

cted investments are debt

investments.

2.

$50 million of cash and equivalents

is regarded as operating cash.

3.

Interest and other income in the income statements is composed as follows.

2002

2001 2000

Interest income 895 967 577

Gain (loss) on investments (1,104) 163 531

(209) 1,130

1,108

The gain on investments applies mainly to

debt and equity investments, but does include

some derivative

gains and losses and other small items.

4.

The change in accumulated other comprehensiv

e loss for all years was due almost entirely

to unrealized gains and lo

sses on debt investments.

5.

Ciscos income tax rate (combined

federal and state) is 36.8 percent.

Cisco Income Statements
2002 2001 2000
Sales 18,915 22,293 18,928
Cost of sales, reported 6,902 11,221 6,746
Gross margin 12,013 11,072 12,182
R&D 3,448 3,922 2,704
Sales and marketing 4,264 5,296 3,946
General and administrative 618 778 633
Restructuring charges --- 1,170 ---
Amortization of good will 690 154
Amortization of intagible assets 699 365 137
In-process R&D 65 855 1,373
total operating expenses 9,094 13,076 8,947
operating income from sales, before tax 2,919 (2,004) 3,235
Investment income (209) 1,130 1,108
Income before tax 2,710 (874) 4,343
Taxes 817 140 1,675
Net income 1,893 (1,014) 2,668
Cisco Balance Sheets
Assets 2002 2001 2000 1999
Current Assets:
Working Cash 9,484 4,873 4,234 913
Short-term investments 3,172 2,034 1,291 1,189
Accounts Receivable 1,105 1466 2299 1250
Inventories 880 1684 1232 658
Deferred tax assets 2,030 1809 1091 580
Lease receivables 239 405 - -
Prepaid expenses 523 564 963 171
total current assets 17,433 12,835 11,110 4,761
investments 8,800 10,346 13,688 7,032
restricted investments 1,264 1,286 1,080
Property and equipment 4,102 2,591 1,426 825
Goodwill 3,565 3,189 2,937 157
Lease receivables 39 253 527 500
Purchased intangibles 797 1,470 1,150 303
Other assets 3,059 3,290 746 235
Total assets 37,795 35,238 32,870 14,893
Liabilities
Current
Accounts payable 470 644 739 374
Income tax payable 579 241 233 630
Accrued compensation 1,365 1,058 1,317 679
Deferred revenue 3,892 3,214 1,386 724
Other accrued liabilities 2,496 2,553 2,653 631
Restructuring liabilities 322 386 --- ---
9,124 8,096 6,328 3,038
Minority interest 15 22 45 44
Common shareholders' equity 28,656 27,120 26,497 11,811
Cash Flow
Years Ended July 27, 2002 July 28, 2001 July 29, 2000
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net income (loss) $1,893.00 ($1,014.00) $2,668.00
Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to
net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization 1,957 2,236 863
Provision for doubtful accounts 91 268 40
Provision for inventory 149 2,775 339
Deferred income taxes ($573.00) ($924.00) ($782.00)
Tax benefits from employee stock option plans 61 1,397 2,495
Adjustment to conform fiscal year ends of pooled acquisitions - - ($18.00)
In-process research and development 53 739 1,279
Net (gains) losses on investments and provision for losses 1,127 43 ($92.00)
Restructuring costs and other special charges - 501 -
Change in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable 270 569 ($1,043.00)
Inventories 673 ($1,644.00) ($887.00)
Prepaid expenses and other current assets ($28.00) ($25.00) ($249.00)
Accounts payable ($174.00) ($105.00) 286
Income taxes payable 389 ($434.00) ($365.00)
Accrued compensation 307 ($256.00) 576
Deferred revenue 678 1,629 662
Other accrued liabilities ($222.00) 251 369
Restructuring liabilities ($64.00) 386 -
Net cash provided by operating activities 6,587 6,392 6,141
Cash flows from investing activities:
Purchases of short-term investments ($5,473.00) ($4,594.00) ($2,473.00)
Proceeds from sales and maturities of short-term investments 5,868 4,370 2,481
Purchases of investments ($15,760.00) ($18,306.00) ($14,778.00)
Proceeds from sales and maturities of investments 15,317 15,579 13,240
Purchases of restricted investments ($291.00) ($941.00) ($458.00)
Proceeds from sales and maturities of restricted investments 1,471 1,082 206
Acquisition of property and equipment ($2,641.00) ($2,271.00) ($1,086.00)
Purchases of technology licenses - ($4.00) ($444.00)
Acquisition of businesses, net of cash and cash equivalents 16 ($13.00) 24
Change in lease receivables, net 380 457 ($535.00)
Purchases of investments in privately held companies ($58.00) ($1,161.00) ($130.00)
Lease deposits 320 ($320.00) -
Purchase of minority interest of Cisco Systems, K.K. (Japan) ($115.00) ($365.00) -
Other 159 ($516.00) ($424.00)
Net cash used in investing activities ($807.00) ($7,003.00) ($4,377.00)
Cash flows from financing activities:
Issuance of common stock 655 1,262 1,564
Repurchase of common stock ($1,854.00) - -
Other 30 ($12.00) ($7.00)
Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities ($1,169.00) 1,250 1,557
Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 4,611 639 3,321
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of fiscal year 4,873 4,234 913
Cash and cash equivalents, end of fiscal year $9,484.00 $4,873.00 $4,234.00

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