Analytics Exercise 18-1 (Algo) Starbucks has a large, global supply chain that must efficiently supply over 17,000 stores. Although the stores might appear to be very similar, they are actually very different. Depending on the location of the store, its size, and the profile of the customers served, Starbucks management configures the store offerings to take maximum advantage of the space available and customer preferences. Starbucks' actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise let's focus on a single item that is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table. (week -1 is the week before week 1 in the table, -2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.). Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing. WEEK -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Atlanta 46 33 33 55 32 32 46 36 33 55 28 20 58 45 35 26 57 42 Boston 56 26 46 42 30 31 37 43 44 44 46 53 19 61 43 33 43 53 Chicago 52 21 65 40 40 45 33 25 52 47 69 65 30 24 95 34 44 46 Dallas LA 38 36 35 60 42 29 28 34 40 50 62 68 62 47 40 35 40 43 42 42 50 40 35 36 42 45 45 47 66 42 35 39 42 45 50 50 Total 234 158 229 237 179 173 186 183 214 243 271 248 204 216 255 173 234 234 a. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks' past data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 3-week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5-week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.) ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Avg of DCs 3-week MA MAD 5-week MA MAPE TS MAD MAPE TS