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Another potential risk of a significant shift to China-centric Canadian exports is the prospect of a sharp deterioration in Sino-American relations. In 2018, this is

Another potential risk of a significant shift to China-centric Canadian exports is the prospect of a sharp deterioration in Sino-American relations. In 2018, this is not a theoretical threat. During his 2016 election campaign, Trump sharply criticized China's trade practices, and Beijing and Washington have exchanged tit-for-tat tariff threats since his inauguration. A number of other potential U.S.-China flashpoints remain, from the South China Sea to Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. While it is currently difficult to imagine the precise circumstances that might trigger U.S. pressure on Canada to alter or restrict its trade with China, such pressure has been brought to bear in the past with regard to Cuba and Iran (Office of the Press Secretary, 2012). Washington will not applaud the conclusion of a CCFTA, particularly with respect to increased Chinese investment in Canada.

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