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2. The second tab of the accompanying data file includes the quarterly estimates of total GDP for the state of Arkansas (Source: St. Louis FRED). Use the following techniques to Period Quarter Year GDP (in billions) forecast the GDP for Quarter 1 of 2019. For the weighted moving average, assign a 2015 116.76 weight of 1/4 to the most recent period, 2/4 to the observation 2 periods earlier, and then OUT A W N H W N 2015 118.26 1/4 to the observation three periods prior. For the trend projection with seasonal dummy 2015 119.56 variables, use dummy variables for Q2, Q3, and Q4. For all other forecasts, follow the 2015 119.53 instructions at the top of the column header. In addition to forecasting Q1 of 2019, also 2016 118.64 provide the MAD of each technique below. Do not worry about the statistical 2016 120.09 significance of coefficients when using regression analysis. Simply interpret the 7 2016 119.86 coefficients. 8 2016 121.77 9 2017 122.5 10 2017 123.6 p=3 p=3 alpha = 0.4 (omit Q1 from dummy variables) 11 2017 123.64 Weighted Exponential Trend Trend Projection 12 2017 125.11 Simple moving Moving Average 2018 126.13 average Smoothing with Season Forecasting Projection 13 Dummies 14 2018 127.9 Q1:2019 15 2018 128.48 Forecast 16 2018 129.81 17 2019 MAD 18 NJ 2019 b. Based off your calculated MAD statistics, which forecast technique would you recommend to the Arkansas Economic Development Institute? c. Using the trend projection with season dummies in your last column, forecast the Arkansas GDP for Quarter 2 of 2019