Anticipate the Surge in Unemployment

The number of unemployed as of February 2020 was 6.88 million people, an increase of 60,000 peoplecompared to February 2019. Entering the second quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate isis expected to increase.

By : AGNES THEODORA/CYPRIANUS ANTO SAPTOWALYONO

JAKARTA, KOMPAS The unemployment rate is predicted to soar in the second quarter of 2020 in line with falling economic growth in the first three months of this year.This condition must be anticipated by the government through the Covid-19 response policy whichmore integrated aspects of health, business, and employment.

Several government policies to cope with the impact of Covid-19 in the sectoremployment also needs to be reviewed. It's because of the implementation of policiesduring the first two months of this pandemic has not been effective.The Central Bureau of Statistics report released on Tuesday (5/5/2020) shows,Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 was 2.97 percent. In the year ofIn this case, the government which originally projected the Indonesian economy to grow in the range of 4.5percent-4.6 percent revised it in two scenarios. In a severe scenario, the Indonesian economy will2020 is estimated to grow 2.3 percent and in a very severe scenario it could be minus 0.4 percentBPS also released, as of February 2020, the open unemployment rate (TPT) fell slightlyto 4.99 percent compared to 5.01 percent in February 2019. However, the number ofunemployment as of February 2020 was 6.88 million people, an increase of 60,000 peoplecompared to February 2019. This is because there is an increase in the working age population.Head of BPS Suhariyanto emphasized that this condition was before the Covid-19 case was found in IndonesiaIndonesia, early March 2020. Entering the second quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate is estimatedWill increase. "Conditions in February are still stable. That condition is different fromApril, there have been layoffs," he said.Suhariyanto added, based on an analysis of the employment data, BPSfound, there was a decrease in the number of job advertisements which began to slow down inMarch 2020 and decreased drastically in April 2020. This indicates the impact ofCovid-19 and current economic conditions on employment.Meanwhile, the Ministry of Manpower noted, as of May 4, 2020, the number of workers whoalmost 3 million people have been laid off and laid off. There are 1.72 million workers who have alreadyrecorded properly, while the data for the remaining 1.2 million workers is still being validated. FromIn this number, there are still fewer workers who are laid off than those who are laid off without pay,namely as many as 375,165 people.

Executive Director of the Center for Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia Mohammad Faisalsaid that the current economic growth condition leads to a tough scenario. With2.97 percent economic growth in the first quarter, the number of unemployed in April-June couldincreased by 6 million people to 9 million people.The government must immediately anticipate the potential for a surge in unemployment with regulationsmore precise and faster implementation of policies on the ground. Variouspolicies that have been issued by the government to help business actors and workerscurrently not significant."In terms of policy, there are already many, but it is considered slow, good for umbrellas"law and its implementation. There are still many policies on the first stimulusI haven't felt it yet, let alone for the next wave of stimulus," he said.According to Faisal, the additional budget for the Covid-19 prevention policy is necessaryimproved. Currently, the government has spent IDR 405 trillion to handleCovid-19. "By looking at the current conditions and our economic growth, it turns out that far below predictions, the Rp 405 trillion budget is still very low foranticipate future conditions," he said.CORE Indonesia projects, with economic growth at 2.97 percent,the potential number of unemployed in the second quarter of 2020 could increase between 6.68 million people and9.35 million people.While referring to the research of The SMERU Research Institute, with growththe current economy is approaching a moderate scenario (3 percent economic growth), the figurepoverty could increase by 3.89 million people. With that moderate scenario, there will be 28.69million poor people were recorded at the end of 2020.