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Apply Bayes Theorem repeatedly in a simulation of two analysts trying to estimate whether we are in a bull or bear market. We know we
Apply Bayes Theorem repeatedly in a simulation of two analysts trying to estimate whether we are in a bull or bear market. We know we are in a bull market because we are running the simulation with a weighted coin P(H) = 0.4, P(T) = 0.6. The "evidence" will be whether the market went up or down today, Each of the analysts will update their prior with "bull" if they flip a tail, and update their prior with "bear" if they flip heads. Make one analyst the pessimist with a 10% chance of bull market to start their prior estimate. Make the other analyst the optimist with a 90% chance of a bull market to start their prior estimate. Each day the analysts will each update their estimate whether they think we are in a bull or bear market using Bayes Theorem. Simulate the two analysts over time and see if they converge on an
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