AR 1

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model has produced the following tables.

	df	SS	MS	F	P-value
Regression	2	135753.5	67876.76	107.3336	0.0000019
Residual	43	27192.79	632.3904
Total	45	162946.3

	Coefficients	Standard Error	t-Statistic	P-value
Intercept	4.85094	5.745787	0.84426	0.40299
yt - 1	-0.10434	0.062849	-1.66023	0.103822
yt - 2	0.962669	0.065709	14.65044	0.0000000969

The actual values of this time series y were 228 for May, 54 for June and 191 for July. The predicted (forecast) value for August is:

Select one:

a.

36.91

b.

174.41

c.

218.71

d.

83.67