Are the following instances of acceptable reasoning or not? If not, identify the statistical fallacy. 1. A staffer for a state department ofcial believes that there is a one in one hundred chance of a nuclear war next year. He also believes that Russian involvement in conict areas around the world increases the chance of nuclear powers being sucked into wars that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. He believes the chance of the Russians moving uniformed troops to Syria or Venezuela is high. And if they do, then the United States will respond in kind. This has a higher than normal chance of leading to nuclear conict. So, he places the chance of a Russian provocation leading to nuclear war next year at one in fty. 2. Since for a while now, 12 of 32 NFL teams have made the playoffs, there's about a 3:3 chance of making the playoffs. Since 195?, the Lions have made the playoffs just 12 times. That's far below the 38 chance, so they are due for a run of playo' appearances. You should bet that they will make the playoffs this year