Are you ready to complete this Discussion assignment? This assignment is intended to be completed after:

• You have completed the Learning Materials on Population (Module 5) Here is the Module 5.

POPULATION

How many people is too many people? Ecologists use carrying capacity to measure how many individuals of any species can be supported by a given ecosystem. We often estimate carrying capacity either by seeing a population that is stable (i.e., the births and deaths every year are approximately equal), so that is probably the "right" number of individuals in that ecosystem; or by seeing a population crash (a large number of individuals die from disease or starvation in a short period of time), regrow, and crash again in cycles indicating that the population can briefly grow beyond the carrying capacity of that ecosystem, but a lack of resources will push their numbers back down. This cycling of populations is often described using the example of snowshoe hare and lynx, whose populations cycle in sync with one another.

• No one knows for sure what Earth's carrying capacity is for humans, as we have neither reached a stable population number (i.e., our population is still growing), nor have we undergone a series of crash/regrowth cycles. The best estimate is that Earth can support somewhere between 9 and 10 billion people (Wilson, 2002). The global population in February 2021 was 7.8 billion (Worldometer, 2021).
• You have watched this week's Course "Reading": Rosling, H. (2013). Don't Panic. [Television broadcast] BBC and Wingspan Productions. This is the link https://www.gapminder.org/videos/dont-panic-the-facts-about-population/

POPULATION

How many people is too many people? Ecologists usecarrying capacityto measure how many individuals of any species can be supported by a given ecosystem. We often estimate carrying capacity either by seeing a population that is stable (i.e., the births and deaths every year are approximately equal), so that is probably the "right" number of individuals in that ecosystem; or by seeing a population crash (a large number of individuals die from disease or starvation in a short period of time), regrow, and crash again in cycles indicating that the population can briefly grow beyond the carrying capacity of that ecosystem, but a lack of resources will push their numbers back down. This cycling of populations is often described using the example of snowshoe hare and lynx, whose populations cycle in sync with one another.

Photo byFederico DiDiophotographyonUnsplash

No one knows for sure what Earth's carrying capacity is for humans, as we have neither reached a stable population number (i.e., our population is still growing), nor have we undergone a series of crash/regrowth cycles. The best estimate is that Earth can support somewhere between 9 and 10 billion people (Wilson, 2002). The global population in February 2021 was 7.8 billion (Worldometer, 2021).

Photo byNICO BHLRonUnsplash

As global population continues to grow so too does our impact on the environment. More people means more mouths to feed and more pollution. Limiting population growth seems like a logical answer to limiting our ecological footprint, and ensuring we do not go beyond carrying capacity, but how can this be achieved? Factors such as economic development, education, access to health care, and urbanization seem to be related to decreasing population growth rates, but they come with their own costs as well. Will population growth stop as nations progress through the demographic transition? Only time will tell; but, by then will it be too late?

Learning Outcomes

The learning outcomes for this module are:

• Explain the conflicting consequences of economic development through examining the demographic transitions model
• Describe the 5 main urbanization trends that are occurring around the world
• Correlate variables such as money, education, health care, and the status of women with population growth using Gapminder tool

Session at a Glance

This lesson covers the following topics:

• Demographic Transition
• Urbanization
• Total Fertility Rate

Required Reading

• Video: Rosling, Hans (2013) Don't Panic. BBC and Wingspan Productions.

DemographicTransition

Demography is the study of changes in human populations over time. Based on patterns that emerged as countries underwent industrialization, demographers developed a model that shows how this transition generally affects the birth rate of a country. The demographic transition model (DTM) has four stages, explained below:

STAGE	CONDITIONS	BIRTH RATE	DEATH RATE	POPULATION
Preindustrial	Widespread disease, rudimentary medical care, unreliable food supply, children help to provide basic needs of the family, most people grow their own food	High	High	Steady
Transitional	Increased food production and improved medical care	High	Medium to low	Rapid growth
Industrial	Employment outside the home, education costs for children	Medium to low	Low	Rapid growth
Post-industrial	Fewer manufacturing-based industries, more service and information based industries, increased education costs for children, women wait longer to have children, few people grow their own food	Low	Low	Steady

Today, most developing nations are still in the transitional stage. Some demographers believe that many developing nations will make the demographic transition over the next few decades. On the contrary, some demographers point to the increase in death rates caused by emerging epidemics such as HIV/AIDS as a problem that keeps developing nations within the transitional stage or even falling back to the preindustrial stage. Other issues may also contribute to this 'demographic trap', such as lack of skilled workers, inadequate access to financial capital and resources and crippling foreign debt.

Most developed countries and a few developing countries are in the industrial stage, while about forty countries (containing about 14% of the global population) have entered the post-industrial stage of the DTM. Countries in the latter stages of the DTM typically have many people with high standards of living, but also have the highest rates of consumption in the world. To meet growing demands, many developed nations draw on resources from developing nations and relocate environmentally damaging activities to developing nations. These activities provide yet another challenge for developing nations currently caught in the demographic trap.

With continued development, it can be expected that all countries will eventually progress through the DTM. This has several implications. Population growth will likely decrease, as will the average family size. However, with increased affluence, consumption will also likely increase. The central question then, as more nations enter the industrial stage of the DTM, is this: how can we balance global population and consumption with the Earth's finite resources?

Grow Your Understanding In 2000, one in every 16 people aged 15-49 in sub-Saharan Africa was infected with HIV. Due to determined international effort, the rate dropped to 1 in every 25 in 2018 (World Bank, 2020). However, HIV/AIDS continues to have a pronounced economic and environmental effect on the region. Illness and mortality due to HIV/AIDS have caused a loss of labour productivity, and a large reduction in food security for many people. The high death rate has also contributed to a loss of knowledge about natural resource management. When families lose adult members, they lose critical knowledge and experience of the local environment. For example, countries that have been heavily impacted by HIV/AIDS usually show increased deforestation (Timko, 2011). Demographers worry that epidemics like HIV hold countries in the Transitional Stage of the DTM and lead to greater eventual population growth and resource depletion. Similarly, the mortality of other pandemics, like COVID-19,in developing countries may also stall development and counter-intuitively lead to a greater world population. For more on the Demographic Transition Model, read "The Demographic Transition: A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model" by the Population Reference Bureau (2005).

Urbanization

When the industrial revolution began, during the middle of the eighteenth century, most people lived in rural areas and small towns and villages (Miller and Hackett, 2008). Today, more than half the world's population live in urban areas. Urban areas have grown by natural increase (more births than deaths) and by immigration, mostly from rural areas. People have moved to the city to escape poverty, unemployment, and war and are often in search of a better life in urban centres. Here are five major trends:

• The proportion of the global population living in urban areas is increasing
• The number of large cities is increasing
• Urbanization and urban populations are increasing in developing countries
• Urban growth is much slower in already heavily urbanized developed countries
• Poverty is becoming increasingly urbanized as more people migrate from rural to urban areas, mostly in developing countries

Urban areas can offer many benefits, such as more job opportunities, more efficient transit, and better access to health care, education and social services. There are also environmental benefits, such as access to recycling, which is more economically feasible in urban areas. Also, by concentrating populations in one area, we can reduce the area of land we impact, and potentially leave more space to maintain biodiversity.

Urbanization also presents many challenges. As cities grow and sprawl, surrounding land is paved over, destroying valuable crop land, wetlands and forests. Pollution levels become concentrated and can overwhelm the ability of the environment to deal with them. Air, water and noise pollution are often high in cities. In this regard, urban centres have large ecological impacts.

Total Fertility Rate

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that a woman has over her lifetime. Most people are aware that the TFR in Canada has dropped over the years. In 1860, it was 5.72, meaning the average family size was 7 (including both parents). By 2019, TFR in Canada had dropped to 1.56. This is below replacement, meaning the number of babies born is less than the number of potential parents, so the population in Canada would be shrinking if there was no immigration.

What most people don't know is that TFR has actually fallen substantially in most countries around the world and currently sits at about 2.5. This means the global population is still increasing, but at a much slower rate than it did in the past (Gapminder, 2020).

Factors that seem to have the most influence on this trend of falling TFR include:

• increased economic prosperity,
• reduced child mortality,
• improved status of women,
• greater access to education for girls, and
• greater access to birth control.

Populations in regions where these factors are common tend to have fewer children. In populations where these factors are not common, the TFR generally remains high. Many people try to explain this trend by turning it on its head saying that small family size is actually the cause and not the consequence of these factors. While there is undeniably some interaction between cause and effect, the data clearly show that these factors generally change before TFR goes down, not the reverse (Gapminder, 2020).

Grow Your Understanding Gapminder is a group of demographers who work to make global demographic data accessible to people around the world. After clicking the links provided below, you will use the bubble tool provided by Gapminder to examine three relationships with TFR. Use the slider beneath the graph to see how these trends have changed in different countries over the years. As income, child mortality or girls' primary school completion change, how does the average number of babies per woman change in different countries? What general trends do you see? How do these factors appear to influence TFR? Relationship 1:Babies per womancorrelated withIncome Relationship 2:Babies per womancorrelated withChild mortality Relationship 3:Babies per womancorrelated withGirls' primary school completion Next,watch this short video (3m 34s)"Will Saving Poor Children Lead to Over-Population?"by Gapminder scientist Hans Rosling and answer the following questions. According to Rosling, why do poor parents tend to have a large number of children? How will saving poor children help reduce overpopulation? What will be the likely environmental consequence of the large reduction in international aid that is currently occurring in the U.S. and several other post-industrial countries?

Deliverables

1. A short (1 - 2 paragraph) post in which you discuss:

• Why were people worried about rising population in the mid 20th century?
• Were you surprised by any of the information in the Don't Panic video?
• What would be the most likely environmental consequences of reducing extreme poverty over the next decade?

Can anyone write this a short 1-2 paragraph post.

Thank you