As a project management professional, it is important for you to be able to review numbers and report on what they are saying. It is also important for you to be able to use software that helps you keep timelines and keep the project running on time and smoothly. This assignment will continue to help prepare you for your responsibilities.

You are a project manager and you successfully completed the project from Weeks 2 and 3. A program manager from another division is aware of your familiarity and success with the Technology Refresh Project. He has asked you to perform a schedule risk analysis on a different Technology Refresh Project, i.e., the Technology Refresh (Version B) Project, which is based on your project from Weeks 2 and 3. In fact, the project tasks are the same, only the durations and the critical paths are different (note: your project files from Week 2 and Week 3 are not relevant to this assignment).

Perform a schedule risk analysis for the Technology Refresh (Version B) Project by completing the following:

Open "Topic 4 Project Assessment Problems TEMPLATE." Take note of the project information, including the expected durations and the tasks that are on the critical path.

Calculate the following;

1. The expected project finish time.
2. The variances for the applicable tasks.
3. The total critical path variance.
4. The total critical path standard deviation.

The customer has seen the Technology Refresh (Version B) project schedule and the expected project finish time. However, the customer is concerned about the schedule risk of the project. Therefore, he wishes to know the following (i.e., determine the following):

1. The probability of finishing the project in 287 days.
2. The probability of finishing the project in 273 days.

Hints:

1. If you wish to solve part 3 using the Z-value approach, refer to the Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table at math.bgu.ac, (2014).
2. Note also that Microsoft Excel's NORM.DIST function can be used to determine the probabilities in part 3, which does require use of the Z-Table.

MGT 640 Topic 4, Project Risk Assessment Problems SOLUTION
ID	Task	Optimistic Duration (days)	Most Likely Duration (days)	Pessimistic Duration (days)	PERT Expected Duration (days)	Critical Path	Variance
1	TECHNOLOGY REFRESH (VERSION B) PROJECT
2	Initiating
3	Meet with key stakeholders	2	3	12	4
4	Finalize statement of work	2	10	15	10
5	Secure project team leads	2	2	4	2
6	Finalize stakeholder register	2	10	13	9
7	Develop project charter	2	5	17	7
8	Finalize project charter	2	4	8	4
9	Planning
10	Scope Planning
11	Requirements
12	Develop/finalize functional requirements	10	18	28	18
13	Develop/finalize hardware requirements	12	16	18	16
14	Develop/finalize software requirements	10	16	30	17
15	Develop/finalize requirements traceability matrix	11	14	28	16
16	Finalize project deliverables	2	2	3	2
17	Develop scope statement	4	9	10	8
18	Finalize/Update WBS	2	3	5	3
19	Schedule (Time) and Cost Planning
20	Finalize hardware/software costs	2	4	5	4
21	Update activities and duration estimates	6	12	14	11
22	Human Resource Planning
23	Finalize resource requirements	6	10	14	10
24	Finalize project costs	4	11	19	11
25	Identify training requirements	2	4	5	4
26	Complete training activities	6	12	14	11
27	Quality Planning
28	Determine impacted quality processes	2	3	4	3
29	Finalize quality management plan	2	10	18	10
30	Risk Planning
31	Update project risks	3	6	12	7
32	Draft risk register	2	3	8	4
33	Finalize risk management plan	2	4	7	4
34	Finalize Project Plan
35	Finalize communications management plan	2	3	4	3
36	Finalize procurement management plan	2	6	14	7
37	Finalize stakeholder management plan	2	2	5	3
38	Finalize project schedule/cost baseline	2	13	19	12
39	Finalize project plan	2	5	16	6
40	Obtain approval for project plan	2	4	7	4
41	Executing
42	Hardware
43	Procure hardware from suppliers	10	24	32	23
44	Software
45	Obtain software OS licenses	6	11	20	12
46	Obtain software application licenses	6	8	17	9
47	Pilot Testing
48	Setup test area	1	2	2	2
49	Load software onto pilot machines	4	6	8	6
50	Validate functionality	3	6	8	6
51	Deployment
52	Configure production hardware	10	25	33	24
53	Deploy production hardware	11	19	23	18
54	Load software to deployed hardware	12	17	19	17
55	Testing
56	Validate startup on deployed hardware	4	9	18	10
57	Perform OS testing	4	8	17	9
58	Perform application testing	4	19	28	18
59	Obtain formal sign-off from users	6	17	24	16
60	Monitoring and Controlling
61	Formal Customer Review 1
62	Hold formal customer review after project plan approval	1	3	4	3
63	Update project plan	4	10	20	11
64	Formal Customer Review 2
65	Obtain updates regarding key deliverables from project team	5	18	22	17
66	Hold formal customer review after pilot testing	5	7	11	7
67	Update project plan	4	8	15	9
68	Closing
69	External
70	Finalize procurement with suppliers	5	18	24	17
71	Customer Approval
72	Hold final customer review	1	2	2	2
73	Prepare/submit final customer report	3	6	10	6
74	Audit against contractual deliverables	3	5	8	5
75	Obtain final customer approval	2	3	4	3
76	Internal
77	Hold lessons learned meeting	1	1	1	1
78	Update final internal report	4	6	12	7
79	Hold project team celebration event	1	1	2	1
				Expected Project Finish Time:		Total Critical Path Variance:		days
					days
						Total Critical Path Standard Deviation:		days
				Probability of finishing the project in	287	days is
							or
								%
				Probability of finishing the project in	273	days is
							or
								%