As an employee of Coca-Cola you need to evaluate and communicate the results of your time-series analysis to the board of directors. They want to communicate to shareholders what the estimated annual dividend rate for CocaCola stock will be for 2022. The dividend rate is how much a shareholder in the company will get per share. If someone has 5000 shares in Coca-Cola and the annual dividend rate is $1.10 then that shareholder will get 5000 x $1.10 = $5,500. Coca-Cola has thousands of shareholders with around 70% being institutional investors (e.g. super funds). Some of these shareholders have up to 400,000 shares in Coca-Cola. You collect the data from past figures the company has and run 6 different models (linear, quadratic, exponential, first, second and third order autoregressive). You determine the best fitting model using:

residual plots, adjusted r2, the standard error of the estimate, prediction interval and the principle of parsimony.

a) What do you predict our share return will be for 2022? The reason.

b) How confident are you of this prediction? Why?

c) What model was used to predict this and why did you use this model?

year	annual dividend	time	timeXtime	AnnualDivlog
2001	0.72	1	1	-0.1427
2002	0.80	2	4	-0.0969
2003	0.88	3	9	-0.0555
2004	1.00	4	16	0.0000
2005	1.12	5	25	0.0492
2006	1.24	6	36	0.0934
2007	1.36	7	49	0.1335
2008	1.52	8	64	0.1818
2009	1.64	9	81	0.2148
2010	1.76	10	100	0.2455
2011	1.88	11	121	0.2742
2012	1.88	12	144	0.2742
2013	1.87	13	169	0.2718
2014	1.81	14	196	0.2577
2015	1.71	15	225	0.2330
2016	1.71	16	256	0.2330
2017	1.69	17	289	0.2279
2018	1.72	18	324	0.2355
2019	1.74	19	361	0.2405
2020	1.74	20	400	0.2405
2021	1.75	21	441	0.2430

For autoregressive:

Year	annual dividend	lag1	lag2	lag3
2004	1	0.88	0.8	0.72
2005	1.12	1	0.88	0.8
2006	1.24	1.12	1	0.88
2007	1.36	1.24	1.12	1
2008	1.52	1.36	1.24	1.12
2009	1.64	1.52	1.36	1.24
2010	1.76	1.64	1.52	1.36
2011	1.88	1.76	1.64	1.52
2012	1.88	1.88	1.76	1.64
2013	1.87	1.88	1.88	1.76
2014	1.81	1.87	1.88	1.88
2015	1.71	1.81	1.87	1.88
2016	1.71	1.71	1.81	1.87
2017	1.69	1.71	1.71	1.81
2018	1.72	1.69	1.71	1.71
2019	1.74	1.72	1.69	1.71
2020	1.74	1.74	1.72	1.69
2021	1.75	1.74	1.74	1.72

I have done all the calculations in the excel sheet. I just need proper explanations of the above questions and reason to pick specific model for this question. Please help me with this.