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As an indicator of whether a male has prostate cancer, doctors often perform a test that measures the level of the prostate specific antigen (PSA).

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As an indicator of whether a male has prostate cancer, doctors often perform a test that measures the level of the prostate specific antigen (PSA). Although higher PSA levels are indicative of cancer, the test is unreliable: The probability that a noncancerous man will have an elevated PSA level is 0.1, with this probability increasing to 0.25 if the man does have cancer. If, based on other factors, a physician is 70 percent certain that a male has prostate cancer, what is the conditional probability that he has the cancer given that the test indicates an elevated PSA level

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