Question
As we discussed on the first day of class, on July 26, 2022, the Invesco Solar ETF (Ticker: TAN) closed at a price of $72.63/shr,
- As we discussed on the first day of class, on July 26, 2022, the Invesco Solar ETF (Ticker: TAN) closed at a price of $72.63/shr, and ran up to $85.57 in the ensuing 3 days. We attributed the lions share of that dramatic price rise to the passage of the IRA in the US. One of TANs largest holdings is SolarEdge Technologies (Ticker: SEDG), whose share price went from $296.48 to $360.13 over the same 3 days. According to YAHOO Finance the consensus earnings estimate for SEDG was/is $9.30 for 2023.
a. Suppose that, prior to the announcement, the analysts consensus was that SEDG would be able to generate ROE of 25% for the ensuing 5 years, and would reinvest 100% of its earnings through 2027, but would start paying out 80% of its earnings as dividends starting in 2028. Assume that the 20% of earnings that are reinvested starting in 2028 can earn an ROE of 20%, and assuming SEDGs cost of equity was 9%, show that SEDG shares were approximately correctly valued at $296.48.
b. Now suppose that the announcement of the IRA caused analysts to reevaluate the growth opportunities of SEDG. Specifically, assume that analysts now upgraded the prospects for SEDGs longer-term ROE to 25%, but otherwise left their assumptions intact. Show that you can justify the jump in share price up to $360+/shr.
c. Finally, SEDG shares closed at $144.76 on Thursday September 14, 2023. Analysts consensus earnings for 2024 is now $10.88, implying 17% growth. Now, assuming that analysts adjusted their near-term growth in earnings downward from 25% to 17%, and assuming that the entire price drop from $360.13 to $144.76 is attributable to a change in SEDGs cost of equity, as well as this ratcheting down of near-term growth, what was SEDGs approximate cost of equity as of Thursday September 14 (2 decimal places is sufficient in your answer)?
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