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As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Vancouver General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Vancouver General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years: The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 42.0 surgeries. \begin{tabular}{lccccc} \hline Year & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\ \hline Heart Transplants & 46.0 & 50.0 & 53.0 & 54.0 & 58.0 \\ \hline \end{tabular} a) Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.60 and then with one of 0.90 , to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6 . Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1 , the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place): \begin{tabular}{lcccccc} \hline Year & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 \\ \hline Forecast & 42.0 & 44.4 & 47.8 & 50.9 & 52.8 & 55.9 \\ \hline \end{tabular} For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with =0.60 and the given forecast for year 1,MAD=4.6 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place). Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.90 and the given forecast for year 1 , forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place): \begin{tabular}{lcccccc} \hline Year & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 \\ \hline Forecast & 42.0 & 45.6 & 49.6 & 52.6 & 53.9 & 57.6 \\ \hline \end{tabular} For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with =0.90 and the given forecast for year 1,MAD=3.4 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place). b) Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4,5 , and 6 . Forecasts for years 4 through 6 using a 3-year moving average are (round your responses to one decimal place): \begin{tabular}{lccc} \hline Year & 4 & 5 & 6 \\ \hline Forecast & 49.7 & 52.3 & 55 \\ \hline \end{tabular} For the forecast made using a 3 -year moving average. MAD=5 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place). c) Use the trend-projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6. Forecasts for years 1 through 6 using the trend-projection method are (round your responses to one decimal place): \begin{tabular}{llllllll} \hline Year & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 \\ \hline Forecast & & & & & & \\ \hline \end{tabular}
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