As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:

Year	1	2	3	4	5
Heart Transplants	45.0	52.0	55.0	57.0	57.0

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be

41.0

surgeries.

Part 2

a) Using exponential smoothing with

of

0.60

and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	41.0	43.4	48.6	52.4	55.2	56.3

Part 3

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with

=

0.60

and the given forecast for year 1, MAD =

5.1

surgeries (round your response to one decimal

place).

Part 4

Using exponential smoothing with

of

0.90

and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	41.0	44.6	51.3	54.6	56.8	57.0

Part 5

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with

=

0.90

and the given forecast for year 1, MAD =

3.5

surgeries (round your response to one decimal

place).

Part 6

b) Forecasts for years 4 through 6 using a 3-year moving average are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	4	5	6
Forecast	50.7	54.7	56.3

Part 7

For forecasts made using a 3-year moving average, MAD =

4.3

surgeries (round your response to one decimal

place).

Part 8

c) Forecasts for years 1 through 6 using the trend-projection method are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	?	?	?	?	?	?