1. As you drive along a city street at night you approach a traffic signal that is red in your direction. You begin to slow, but then notice the light in the other direction has changed to amber. Anticipating the green, you take your foot off the brake and begin to accelerate. In doing this, you have made a predictive inference from a bit of data.
   1. Schematize the inference as a simple one-step argument.
   2. Then schematize it in compound, predictive form, interposing a diagnosis.
   3. Give an undermining diagnostic rival.
   4. What Local Resource would support your undermining rival in (c)?
2. Southern California has not had a very large earthquake in more than a century. It is therefore likely that it will have one in the near future.
   1. Structure this inference in standard two-step predictive form, supplying an underlying diagnosis.
   2. How does this structure help you explain why you cannot make the same inference from the same data in other parts of the country, such as Indiana?
3. Eleanor Langen paused briefly on her walk from the bus stop to gaze sadly at the majestic shade trees she had known since her youth-or what was left of them. Soon none would remain to shade her walk on hot summer days or cast stark silhouettes against a gray winter sky. Six or eight had died each summer for the past few years, and now nearly half of the original stand was gone. Eleanor was convinced the mysterious disease could be stopped if the city would just take the problem seriously. But she was sure it wouldn't: She had already wasted hundreds of hours chasing through the municipal bureaucracy, trying to find a responsive agency.
   1. Schematize Eleanor's argument for her prediction in standard compound predictive form.
   2. Describe the connecting conditions she offers in the main argument.
   3. Give an undermining rival for Eleanor's diagnostic conclusion.
   4. Give a diagnostic rival that might be underwriting.