As you know, Twitter agreed to sell to Elon Musk for $54.20 a share on April 14. On July 8, Musk announced that he was seeking to terminate the deal. Subsequently, Twitter sued Musk demanding he completed the deal. On July 8, Twitter's stock price was 39.75.

Suppose I plan to buy a bunch of call options with a strike price of $45 that expire right before the acquisition's closing. Like some investors, I am hoping that if the deal closes, the stock price right before closing will be $54.20: thus, I will be able to exercise my call options and earn a profit. However, if the deal fails, the stock price will hover below $40 and I will receive nothing.

If the call options' price today is $6, determine the probability of success the market has assigned this acquisition deal. (Ignore time value of money)

NO EXCEL-- Will leave good review if correct