ASAP To RATE HIGHER

1.1A bat and ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? cents. 1.2 If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets? minutes. 1.3 In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake? days. 2. Now take 5 minutes to reflect on your answers. Most people give the following answers. As you might already know, these answers are incorrect. Correct answers are: Were your answers correct? Why do you think most people give incorrect answers (consider the time constraint)? Please read about bounded rationality and two different thought systems in our brain, automatic vs. reflective, and briefly discuss. 3. Answer the following question and explain your reasoning. A certan town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital, about 45 babies are born each day; and in the smaler hospital, about 15 babies are born each day. As you know, about 50 percent of all babies are boys. However, the exact percentage varies from day to day. Sometimes it may be higher than 50 percert, sometimes lower. For a period of 1 year, each hospital recorded the days in which more than 60 percent of the babies born were boys. Which hospital do you think recorded more such days?" A. The larger hospital 8. The smaller hospital C. About the same (that is, within 5% of each other) Soucce Katneman, D. \& Tvershy. A. (1974). Judgment under urcertanty. Heurstis and bases. Soence, 1854157, 1124-1121. Correct answer is Why do you think this is the correct answer? Consider the sample size. What happens as the sample size grows? Think about flipping a coin. What happens if you flip the coin numerous times? Do you get closer to 50/50 chance? 4.1 A newly hired engineer for a computer firm in the Boston metropolitan area has four years experience and good all-around qualifications. When asked to estimate the starting salary for this employee, my secretary (knowing very little about the profession or the industry) guessed an annual salary of $65,000. What is your estimate? \$ 4.2 Is the population of Burkina Faso greater than 45 million? What's your best estimate of Burkina Faso's population? milion. Another group answered question 4.1, but this time the question presented a much higher number instead ($130,000) and people's estimates were very close to $130,000 and diverged significantly from the first group. The other group also answered question 4.2, but in their version the number presented was 5 million, much smaller. Again, their estimates were very close to 5 million and diverged significantly from the first group. Given neither the secretary's estimate (knows little about the profession/industry) nor the population number in the question has any credibility, why do you think people's estimates were very close to the given numbers and diverged significantly? Identify and explain the decision bias that explains the results in this question. 5. The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs are proposed. Which one would you favor? A first group was given the first formulation of the alternative programs: - If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. %72 - If program B is adopted, there is 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and 2/3 probability that no one will be saved. %28 A second group was given the cover story with the following formulation of the alternative programs: - If program A is adopted, 400 people will die. \% 22 - If program B is adopted, there is 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and 2/3 probability that 600 people will die. %78 Which program (A or B) is the riskier one? Why do you think people's choices, hence risk taking behavior, changed even though the programs are almost identical (except a single word). Identify and explain the decision bias that explains the results in this question? 6. As the president of an airline company, you have invested 9 million dollars of the company's money into a research project. The purpose was to build a plane that would not be detected by conventional radar, in other words, a radar-blank plane. When the project is 90% completed, another firm begins marketing a plane that cannot be detected by radar. Also, it is apparent that their plane is much faster and far more economical than the plane your company is building. The question is: should you invest the last 1 million (10%) of the research funds to finish your radar-blank plane? Use the following 0 to 100 scale and write a number between 0 and 100 that reflects what you think your plane's chance of financial success really is. You can use any number." 0%100% "No Chance" "Sure thing" In a different version of this question, when people faced negative consequences as a result of their initial investment, they were more likely to invest the remaining funds if the initial investment was larger compared to when it was smaller. Identify and explain the decision bias reflecting people's tendency to become more committed to a failing course of action