Ask Expert Tutors

Let our expert tutors help you get unstuck 24/7. Answers in as fast as 15 minutes.

Enter a question

You have15questionsremaining

Ask a question

Related Answered Questions

Asked bybighero006

Hospitality Hotels forecasts monthly labor needs.

(a) Given the following monthly labor figures, make a forecast for June using a three-period moving average and a five-period moving average.

Month Actual Values

January36

February41

March 42

April40

May44

(b) What would be the forecast for June using the nave method?

(c) If the actual labor figure for June turns out to be 41, what would be the forecast for July using each of these models?

(d) Compare the accuracy of these models using the mean absolute deviation (MAD).

(e) Compare the accuracy of these models using the mean squared error (MSE).

( a ) for Given data : ( 1) 3 - period Moving average = (A )yacht @ )April + CA say 42 3 = 42+ 40+ 44 126 - 42 3 3 * 3 -) period Moving average for June = 42 ( "1 ) 5-period Moving average = ( A ) + ( 4 ) febt ( After + (Appr + CAmay 5 = 36+ 41 + 4 2+ 40 +44 = 203 = 40.6 5 5 * 15 - period Moving average for June = 40.6 Naive Method : - -) The Naive forecast for June would be the actual value for May Naive forecast for June : Fjune , " AMay = 4 4 forecast for July if June = 41 : - ( i ) 3 - period Moving Average for July = (A )Aprilt ( A)may+ A) June 40+ 4 4 + 41 3 125 = 41:67 3 3 3 - perid HA for July if (June= 41 ) = 41.67 ( 1 ) similarly, 5- period MA for July = 41 7 42 + 4 0+ 4 utu ) 41 . 6 -208 - 41.6 5 - period M. A for July if ( June=ul ) = 41.6 ( 11) * ) Naive : FJuly : AJune = 41/(Actual-3 M4) (Actcal-SMA) (Naicele = Aprevious) (Actual- Naive) Month Actual 13- period Absolute s- period Absolute MA Lexyor Naive Absoluteewor Jan -) 38 O feb * 41 J 36 Har - 42 Apr - 40-139.67-)0.33 -42 -3 2 May -) 44 - 42- 2 4 June () 41 7 41. 67(70. 67 - 40. 6 1:07 -> 44 W - MAD ( 3 - period ) = 0:33 + 2 + 067 . . 397 0 '80 3 3 * MAD ( 3 - period ) = 0 799 ~ 080 - MAD (S-period ) = 107 = 1.07 1 * MAD ( S-period ) = 1.07 - MAD ( Naive ) = 5+1 + 2 + 4+3 = 3 -* HAD ( Naive ) = 31 .. The MAD (Naive ) provides the best historical fit using the MAD Criteria e ) Absolute errov value. ) squared ewor. 3- period ( M.A ) error ) (0:33 , 86, 0:17-) 5:33 ). Squarelenov. 6 .33 1 21 0.67 - (0 33 ) , (2), 6 0 . 67 ) = 0 . 1089 , 410-4489 * 3 - period Squatle error = 0.1089 , 4, 0:4489 5- period ( 1.A)error = ( 1.07 ) 2 1. 1449. * Naive squared errorvalue = (5,2, (1) 2 (2) 2 4); ( 3) = = 25, 1, 4, 16, 9. Mean Squared enor ( MSE ) : - MSE (3 -period. Moving average ) = 0.108 9+ 4+0 4489 4.5578 =2.2789 n - 1 2 MSE ( 5- period. M. A ) ( n= 1 ) = 1.1449 1. 1449 = Notposside (:n=!) 1-1 0 M. S. E ( Naive ) = ( 25 + 1 + 4+16+ 9) / 5-1 = 1375Ci. MSE ( Naive )= Bestfit forMSG