Asset Allocation:Cook County Build a model to simulate the solvency of the pension fund through 2040. Use
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Asset Allocation:Cook County
- Build a model to simulate the solvency of the pension fund through 2040. Use the market value of the fund at the end of 2016 as the starting point for your simulation. Next, simulate the market value of the fund through the end of 2017. To do so, you will need to account for:
a.Deductions from the pension that will be made in 2017 to pay out benefits to current retirees. To compute 2017 deductions, use the amount of 2016 deductions provided in the case and assume it grows by a constant annual growth rate.
- Contributions that will be made to the fund in 2017. In your projections, separate the supplementary contributions made by the County from required contributions by the County and its employees. For example, in 2016, total contributions to the fund were $659.3 million (Exhibit 8). Of that $659.3 million, $270.5 million was a supplementary contribution made by Cook County and the remaining $388.8 million were required contributions by the County and its employees.
- Investment returns by the fund. Assume that annual returns are normally distributed. First build your simulator by assuming an arbitrary mean and standard deviation, then adjust the inputs afterwards. In addition, assume that investment returns are realized before any contributions and deductions are made in 2017.
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