Question
Assume that consumers and firms use the currently observed inflation rate as their best guess about inflation next year, and that the central bank follows
Assume that consumers and firms use the currently observed inflation rate as their best guess about inflation next year, and that the central bank follows the Taylor rulei= ̄r+π+ 0.5(π−π⊗) + 0.5ˆYwhereiis the nominal interest rate set by the central bank, ̄ris (the central bank’sestimate of) the long-run real interest rate,πis current inflation,π⊗is the inflation target of the central bank, andˆYis the output gap. Assume further that the centralbank has the inflation targetπ⊗= 1%, the output gap isˆY= 0, and that the centralbank estimates the the long run equilibrium real interest rate to ̄r= 3% per year.
(a) What is the nominal interest rate if current inflation isπ= 1%?
(b) Then, what is the expected real interest rate (r)?
(c) What is the nominal interest rateiif current inflation isπ= 3%?
(d) Then, what is the expected real interest rate (r)?
(e) What is the expected real interest rate (r) if current inflation isπ=−1%?
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