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Assume that exchange rate movements were unusually stable in a recent period (but will not continue to be so stable in the future) that was

Assume that exchange rate movements were unusually stable in a recent period (but will not continue to be so stable in the future) that was used to derive the estimated maximum expected loss based on the VaR method. The estimated expected loss derived using VaR based on that recent period will likely overestimate the actual maximum expected loss in the future.

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