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Assume that if M launches a new e - trading platform, its price will go up to $ 2 7 9 . Else, M price

Assume that if M launches a new e-trading platform, its price will go up to $279. Else, M price will go down to $60. You are aware that M shares are being traded at $188. You also know that the risk-free rate is 5%.
What is the probability that M price will go up?
*** Please round your answer to the nearest three decimals (i.e.0.512)
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