Assume that Jones Co. will need to purchase 100,000 Singapore dollars (S$) in 180 days. Today's spot rate of the S$ is $.50, and the 180-day forward rate is $.53. A call option on S$ exists, with an exercise price of $.52, a premium of $.02, and a 180-day expiration date. A put option on S$ exists, with an exercise price of $.51, a premium of $.02, and a 180-day expiration date. Jones has developed the following probability distribution for the spot rate in 180 days:

Possible Spot Rate in 90 Days Probability

$.48 10%

$.53 60%

$.55 30%

The probability that the forward hedge will result in a higher payment than the options hedge is ____ (include the amount paid for the premium when estimating the U.S. dollars required for the options hedge).

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