Assume that Sidney Johnson is confident in her estimates of all the variables that affect the projects cash flows except unit sales and sales price. If product acceptance is poor, unit sales would be only 900 units a year and the unit price would only be $160; a strong consumer response would produce sales of 1,600 units and a unit price of $240. Johnson believes there is a 25% chance of poor acceptance, a 25% chance of excellent acceptance, and a 50% chance of average acceptance (the base case).

a. What is scenario analysis?

b. What is the worst-case NPV? The best-case NPV?

c. Use the worst-, base-, and best-case NPVs and probabilities of occurrence to find the projects expected NPV, as well as the NPVs standard deviation and coefficient of variation.

*Please refer to the Mini Case on the picture to answer the questions above!

continued for the entire 4 years. Also, the project's returns are expected to be highly correlated with returns on the firm's other assets. The firm believes it could sell 1,000 Chapter 11 Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis 495 units per year. The equipment would be depreciated over a 5-year period, using MACRS rates. The estimated market value of the equipment at the end of the project's 4-year life is $500,000 Webmasters.com's federal-plus-state tax rate is 40%. Its cost of capital is 10% for average-risk projects, defined as projects with a coefficient of variation of NPV between 0.8 and 1.2. Low- risk projects are evaluated with an 8% project cost of capital and high-risk projects at 13%. a. Develop a spreadsheet model, and use it to find the project's NPV, IRR, and payback. b. Now conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the sensitivity of NPV to changes in the sales price, variable costs per unit, and number of units sold. Set these variables' values at 10% and 20% above and below their base-case values. Include a graph in your analysis. c. Now conduct a scenario analysis. Assume that there is a 25% probability that best-case conditions, with each of the variables discussed in Part b being 20% better than its base-case value, will occur. There is a 25% probability of worst-case conditions, with the variables 20% worse than base, and a 50% probability of base-case conditions. d. If the project appears to be more or less risky than an average project, find its risk- adjusted NPV, IRR, and payback. e. On the basis of information in the problem, would you recommend the project should be accepted? MINI CASE Shrieves Casting Company is considering adding a new line to its product mix, and the capital budgeting analysis is being conducted by Sidney Johnson, a recently graduated MBA. The production line would be set up in unused space in the main plant. The machinery's invoice price would be approximately $200,000, another $10,000 in shipping charges would be required, and it would cost an additional $30,000 to install the equip ment. The machinery has an economic life of 4 years, and Shrieves has obtained a special tax ruling that places the equipment in the MACRS 3-year class. The machinery is expected to have a salvage value of $25,000 after 4 years of use. The new line would generate incremental sales of 1,250 units per year for 4 years at an incremental cost of $100 per unit in the first year, excluding depreciation. Each unit can be sold for $200 in the first year. The sales price and cost are both expected to increase by 3% per year due to inflation. Further, to handle the new line, the firm's net working capital would have to increase by an amount equal to 12% of sales revenues. The firm's tax rate is 40%, and its overall weighted average cost of capital, which is the risk-adjusted cost of capital for an average project (r), is 10%. a. Define "incremental cash flow." (1) Should you subtract interest expense or dividends when calculating project cash flow? (2) Suppose the firm spent $100,000 last year to rehabilitate the production line site. Should this be included in the analysis? Explain. (3) Now assume the plant space could be leased out to another firm at $25,000 per year. Should this be included in the analysis? If so, how? (4) Finally, assume that the new product line is expected to decrease sales of the firm's other lines by $50,000 per year. Should this be considered in the analysis? If so, how? continued for the entire 4 years. Also, the project's returns are expected to be highly correlated with returns on the firm's other assets. The firm believes it could sell 1,000 Chapter 11 Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis 495 units per year. The equipment would be depreciated over a 5-year period, using MACRS rates. The estimated market value of the equipment at the end of the project's 4-year life is $500,000 Webmasters.com's federal-plus-state tax rate is 40%. Its cost of capital is 10% for average-risk projects, defined as projects with a coefficient of variation of NPV between 0.8 and 1.2. Low- risk projects are evaluated with an 8% project cost of capital and high-risk projects at 13%. a. Develop a spreadsheet model, and use it to find the project's NPV, IRR, and payback. b. Now conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the sensitivity of NPV to changes in the sales price, variable costs per unit, and number of units sold. Set these variables' values at 10% and 20% above and below their base-case values. Include a graph in your analysis. c. Now conduct a scenario analysis. Assume that there is a 25% probability that best-case conditions, with each of the variables discussed in Part b being 20% better than its base-case value, will occur. There is a 25% probability of worst-case conditions, with the variables 20% worse than base, and a 50% probability of base-case conditions. d. If the project appears to be more or less risky than an average project, find its risk- adjusted NPV, IRR, and payback. e. On the basis of information in the problem, would you recommend the project should be accepted? MINI CASE Shrieves Casting Company is considering adding a new line to its product mix, and the capital budgeting analysis is being conducted by Sidney Johnson, a recently graduated MBA. The production line would be set up in unused space in the main plant. The machinery's invoice price would be approximately $200,000, another $10,000 in shipping charges would be required, and it would cost an additional $30,000 to install the equip ment. The machinery has an economic life of 4 years, and Shrieves has obtained a special tax ruling that places the equipment in the MACRS 3-year class. The machinery is expected to have a salvage value of $25,000 after 4 years of use. The new line would generate incremental sales of 1,250 units per year for 4 years at an incremental cost of $100 per unit in the first year, excluding depreciation. Each unit can be sold for $200 in the first year. The sales price and cost are both expected to increase by 3% per year due to inflation. Further, to handle the new line, the firm's net working capital would have to increase by an amount equal to 12% of sales revenues. The firm's tax rate is 40%, and its overall weighted average cost of capital, which is the risk-adjusted cost of capital for an average project (r), is 10%. a. Define "incremental cash flow." (1) Should you subtract interest expense or dividends when calculating project cash flow? (2) Suppose the firm spent $100,000 last year to rehabilitate the production line site. Should this be included in the analysis? Explain. (3) Now assume the plant space could be leased out to another firm at $25,000 per year. Should this be included in the analysis? If so, how? (4) Finally, assume that the new product line is expected to decrease sales of the firm's other lines by $50,000 per year. Should this be considered in the analysis? If so, how