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Assume that the defendant knows his own type (innocent or guilty) and observes whether d exists (is realized). If d exists, the defendant chooses whether
Assume that the defendant knows his own type (innocent or guilty) and observes whether d exists (is realized). If d exists, the defendant chooses whether to disclose it. The jury only observes whether d is disclosed - not whether the defendant is guilty or innocent. When the defendant does not disclose d, we can say that the defendant disclosed . Let b(d) denote the jury's posterior belief that the defendant is innocent when the defendant discloses d. Analogously, let b() denote the jury's posterior belief that the defendant is innocent when the defendant discloses . Finally, suppose that, when he possesses, each type of defendant randomizes as to whether to disclosed with probability 1/2. That is, when either type of defendant possesses d, he discloses it with probability 1/2. (a) Find b(d). (b) Can the described randomization by each type of defendant be part of a PBE? Explain. Simple intuition is fine. Assume that the defendant knows his own type (innocent or guilty) and observes whether d exists (is realized). If d exists, the defendant chooses whether to disclose it. The jury only observes whether d is disclosed - not whether the defendant is guilty or innocent. When the defendant does not disclose d, we can say that the defendant disclosed . Let b(d) denote the jury's posterior belief that the defendant is innocent when the defendant discloses d. Analogously, let b() denote the jury's posterior belief that the defendant is innocent when the defendant discloses . Finally, suppose that, when he possesses, each type of defendant randomizes as to whether to disclosed with probability 1/2. That is, when either type of defendant possesses d, he discloses it with probability 1/2. (a) Find b(d). (b) Can the described randomization by each type of defendant be part of a PBE? Explain. Simple intuition is fine
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