Question
Assume that you are considering which of the two COVID-19 vaccines to get: AstroSupernova (A) and/or Sinocrack (S). You must get two doses of the
Assume that you are considering which of the two COVID-19 vaccines to get: AstroSupernova (A) and/or Sinocrack (S). You must get two doses of the vaccines, but may choose between any of the two, mixing and matching as desired. In particular, you may choose AstroSupernova for both doses (AA), AstroSupernova for the first dose and Sinocrack for the second (AS), Sinocrack for the first dose and AstroSupernova for the second (SA), or Sinocrack for both doses (SS).
You are concerned with two issues: the effectiveness of the vaccines, which may be low or high, and their side-effects, which may be mild or severe.
- The best case scenario is if the two doses turn out to be high in effectiveness with mild side-effects (HighMild). The value of this outcome is equivalent to you gaining 100,000 Baht.
- The second-best case scenario is if the two doses turned out to be high in effectiveness with severe side-effects (HighSevere). The value of this outcome is equivalent to you gaining 50,000 Baht.
- The third-best case scenario is if the two doses turned out to be low in effectiveness with mild side-effects (LowMild). The value of this outcome is equivalent to you losing -100,000 Baht.
- The fourth-best (worst) case scenario is if the two doses turned out to be low in effectiveness with severe side-effects (LowSevere). The value of this outcome is equivalent to you losing -200,000 Baht.
Suppose that the following table represents the probabilities of the four scenarios (HighMild, HighSevere, LowMild, and LowSevere) for each of the vaccine combination (AA, AS, SA, and SS).
PROBABILITY OF EFFECTIVENESS/SIDE-EFFECTS OUTCOME | ||||
VACCINE COMBINATION | LowSevere | LowMild | HighSevere | HighMild |
AA | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
AS | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
SA | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
SS | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
- According to this problem, is it possible to get different vaccines for the two doses?
- Which is the most likely effectiveness and side-effects outcome for the AS vaccine combination?
- According to this problem, what is the monetary value (in Baht) associated with the HighMild effectiveness and side-effects outcome? (Designate a negative value with the '-' sign if applicable.)
- Should the objective of this problem be to maximize or minimize the expected monetary value (EMV)?
- Which is the least likely effectiveness and side-effects outcome for the AA vaccine combination?
- According to this problem, which of the following is the effectiveness and side-effects outcome that is associated with a gain of 50,000 Baht?
- Which of the following vaccine combinations will result in the second highest expected monetary value (EMV)?
- What is expected monetary value (EMV) in Baht from choosing the AS vaccine combination? (Include the '-' sign if the value is negative.)
- What is the probability of getting an effectiveness and side-effects outcome that is a gain (positive equivalent monetary value) if we chose the AA vaccine combination? (Type in a number as a decimal between 0 and 1.)
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